Feed costs keep sliding as corn and soybean meal ease, but canola, sunflower meal, fishmeal and DDGS sit near 52-week highs

Corn (-0.2%) and soybean meal (-0.5%) edged lower, and template feed formulas are down about 1% on the week and 4-6% over four weeks. Soybean oil, palm oil and crude also eased, while the dollar slipped after the US midterm results. Alternative proteins are the pressure point: canola meal, sunflower meal, fishmeal and DDGS are all in the top of their annual ranges.

Feed cost

Least-cost template formulas for the week ending Nov 6 are lower across the board. The biggest weekly drops were 1.0% for broiler starter (291.1 $/t), pullet starter (275.6), layer phase 1 (251.0), turkey starter (333.6), swine nursery (298.8), sow lactation (300.6) and tilapia grow-out (370.2). Four-week declines run roughly 3-6%, led by pullet starter (-6.4%) and broiler starter (-6.1%). For the broiler grower, the weekly move was driven by soybean meal (-1.34 $/t) and corn (-1.09 $/t); soybean oil contributed almost nothing and the mix did not change. These are template formulas, not any mill's actual cost.

Grains

Corn is 208.99 $/mt, 23% up its 52-week range and only 2.9% above a year ago. Reports point to cheaper Brazilian FOB offers, lower Mexican short-term buying of US corn and higher Ukrainian freight, with Chinese formulas shifting away from corn and soymeal; December CBOT corn is reported near 439 c/bu, down about 14% in a month. US corn export commitments are 28% of the USDA target against a 40% five-year average, a slow pace. SRW wheat is at 82% of its range, up 15.1% on the year.

Protein meals and fats

Soybean meal at 388.57 $/mt is mid-range (49%), and the spec long is large (99th percentile, 168,714 net contracts), so liquidation risk exists. Meal export commitments are 29% of USDA versus a 37% average. Canola meal (402.99, +24.7% y/y), sunflower meal (358.43), fishmeal (2,840, as of Oct 1) and DDGS (225.70, as of Sep 1) are all at or near 52-week highs, so substitution away from them may be limited. Soybean oil is 84% of its range, supported by US biofuel tax credits favoring it over canola oil; palm oil fell 2.2%. EU deforestation rules for soy and palm apply from Dec 30.

Livestock

Lean hogs are at their 52-week low (62.78 $/cwt, -26% y/y), and managed money is at its most bearish in the data, a sign of weak margins and possible herd reductions. Chinese hog prices fell 3.9% in a week to 8.85 yuan/kg. Feeder cattle fell 1.2% after a sharp drop on Oct 30, and live cattle are near the bottom of their range. Class III milk jumped about 12% in two sessions on a rebound from lows, though surplus supply remains a concern.

Energy, freight and macro

Crude is easing (WTI 100.37, Brent 112.05) but is still 65-73% above a year ago; diesel is 86% higher y/y. Reports cite a weaker dollar after the Democratic midterm win and hopes tied to Iran talks. Mississippi barge traffic has resumed and barge freight fell 5.1% last week. An indefinite port strike at Argentina's Exolgan terminal is a logistics risk to watch.

Number of the day: 0th percentile

Lean hogs vs 52-week range, with managed money net short at its record low (-51,646). Weak hog prices and margins can reduce feed demand and signal herd cuts, which matters for swine feed volumes.

What to watch

• 2026-11-05: USDA weekly export sales; corn commitments at 28% of USDA target vs 40% average
• 2026-11-05: US Drought Monitor
• 2026-11-06: CFTC Commitments of Traders: watch whether the large soybean meal spec long keeps shrinking
• 2026-11-10: WASDE