--- title: "How will the USDA-projected 2% rise in global vegetable oil exports to 141 million tons in 2026/27 affect rapeseed and soy oil inclusion rates in animal feed?" question: "How will the USDA-projected 2% rise in global vegetable oil exports to 141 million tons in 2026/27 affect rapeseed and soy oil inclusion rates in animal feed?" shortAnswer: "The projected rise in global vegetable oil exports is primarily driven by rapeseed and sunflower oils — not soy oil — which means broader availability and potentially more competitive pricing for rapeseed oil in international markets, while soy oil's role in animal feed is only marginally affected by trade shifts. Feed inclusion decisions will depend heavily on local crushing activity, biofuel demand competing for the same oils, and relative prices between oil types." summary: "USDA forecasts global vegetable oil exports reaching a record 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 2%, with rapeseed oil exports rising 8% and sunflower oil 15%. Soy oil exports are expected to grow just 1% due to strong industrial demand in the USA and Brazil. Greater availability of rapeseed oil could support its inclusion in animal feed, but competition from biofuel demand — particularly in the EU — may limit any price relief. What this means for your feed formulations depends on your region and supplier access." url: "https://feedsoft.ai/questions/how-will-the-usda-projected-2-rise-in-global-vegetable-oil-exports-to-141-million-tons-in-2026-27-af-3203c8b1" publisher: "The Feed Report" section: "Commodity Markets" author: "The Feed Desk" datePublished: "2026-10-16T17:20:56.598Z" dateModified: "2026-10-16T17:20:56.598Z" sources: - title: "Rapeseed and sunflower set to drive 2026/27 vegetable oil trade" url: "https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/rapeseed-and-sunflower-set-to-drive-2026-27-vegetable-oil-trade" - title: "Rapeseed, sunflower oil to drive record global vegetable oil trade in 2026/27 - Africa Business Insight" url: "https://africabusinessinsight.com/rapeseed-sunflower-oil-to-drive-record-global-vegetable-oil-trade-in-2026-27/" - title: "Global vegetable oil exports to hit record 141 mln tons in 2026/27 — USDA" url: "https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/global-vegetable-oil-exports-to-hit-record-141-mln-tons-in-2026-27-usda/" - title: "EU may increase rapeseed oil use for biofuel production" url: "https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/eu-may-increase-rapeseed-oil-use-for-biofuel-production/" - title: "Global Vegetable Oil Trade Seen Hitting Record High, Led by Rapeseed and Sunflower (USDA) - Ecofin Agency" url: "https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-agriculture/2909-59328-global-vegetable-oil-trade-seen-hitting-record-high-led-by-rapeseed-and-sunflower-usda" --- # How will the USDA-projected 2% rise in global vegetable oil exports to 141 million tons in 2026/27 affect rapeseed and soy oil inclusion rates in animal feed? **Short answer:** The projected rise in global vegetable oil exports is primarily driven by rapeseed and sunflower oils — not soy oil — which means broader availability and potentially more competitive pricing for rapeseed oil in international markets, while soy oil's role in animal feed is only marginally affected by trade shifts. Feed inclusion decisions will depend heavily on local crushing activity, biofuel demand competing for the same oils, and relative prices between oil types. ## The headline number and what is driving it Global vegetable oil exports — including oilseeds converted to a vegetable oil equivalent — are forecast to reach a record 141 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 2% from the previous season. The growth is not evenly spread: rapeseed oil and equivalent exports are projected to rise by around 8%, and sunflower oil shipments by as much as 15%. Palm oil exports, by contrast, are expected to fall by 2%, and soy oil exports to increase by only 1%. ## Rapeseed oil: more supply, but biofuels competing hard The increase in rapeseed availability is underpinned by higher crop output. Global rapeseed production in 2026/27 is forecast to approach 100 million tonnes, with additional supplies coming from Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Global oilseed crush is forecast at 549.8 million tonnes, up 22.6 million tonnes from the prior season, which points to more oil being produced for all end-uses including feed. However, the biofuel sector is absorbing a growing share of available oils and fats. Use of oils and fats for FAME, HVO, and SAF production is expected to increase from 58.9 million tonnes in 2025 to 72.5 million tonnes in 2027. With used cooking oil (UCO) supplies remaining tight, EU biofuel producers may increasingly turn to rapeseed oil as a substitute feedstock. This competing demand could limit how much of the additional rapeseed oil supply flows toward feed uses, and may prevent the kind of price softening that feed formulators might otherwise expect. ## Soy oil: trade growth is minimal Soy oil's contribution to export growth is limited. Despite strong soybean production globally, total soybean oil and equivalent exports are expected to increase by only 1% in 2026/27 due to higher industrial usage in the USA and Brazil. This means that, from a trade perspective, increased soybean crushing will generate more protein meal — relevant to feed — but the oil fraction is being absorbed domestically rather than flowing into export markets. It is worth noting that in markets such as China, soybean crushing is driven by meal demand for animal feed, with soy oil as a co-product. Since 2017/18, global soybean oil supply has increased by nearly 20 million tonnes, driven largely by industrial demand in China and import growth in India. But the marginal tonne of soy oil in 2026/27 is increasingly going to industrial rather than feed applications. ## Palm oil: tightening export availability Palm oil exports are expected to decline by 2%, with Indonesia's biofuel policy expansion cited as the primary limiting factor for exportable supplies. Global palm oil production is forecast at 81.1 million tonnes compared with 75.1 million tonnes for soybean oil — a gap that has narrowed from more than 15 million tonnes in 2022/23. Reduced palm oil availability in export markets could in principle support demand for alternative oils including rapeseed and sunflower in feed formulations, depending on regional substitution economics. ## What the evidence does and does not settle The evidence establishes the direction and scale of trade flows and production forecasts clearly. What it does not resolve is whether the additional rapeseed and sunflower oil will translate into lower inclusion costs for feed manufacturers, since biofuel demand, energy policy, and weather remain influential price variables. The USDA data also covers aggregate trade; actual inclusion rates in compound feed depend on formulation economics at a regional and species level, which vary considerably. Buyers in the EU, USA, and China — identified as the largest growth importers of rapeseed oil — may see improved availability, but the extent to which that benefits feed use over biofuel use is not settled by the current evidence. ## Sources - [Rapeseed and sunflower set to drive 2026/27 vegetable oil trade](https://www.ofimagazine.com/news/rapeseed-and-sunflower-set-to-drive-2026-27-vegetable-oil-trade) - [Rapeseed, sunflower oil to drive record global vegetable oil trade in 2026/27 - Africa Business Insight](https://africabusinessinsight.com/rapeseed-sunflower-oil-to-drive-record-global-vegetable-oil-trade-in-2026-27/) - [Global vegetable oil exports to hit record 141 mln tons in 2026/27 — USDA](https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/global-vegetable-oil-exports-to-hit-record-141-mln-tons-in-2026-27-usda/) - [EU may increase rapeseed oil use for biofuel production](https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/eu-may-increase-rapeseed-oil-use-for-biofuel-production/) - [Global Vegetable Oil Trade Seen Hitting Record High, Led by Rapeseed and Sunflower (USDA) - Ecofin Agency](https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-agriculture/2909-59328-global-vegetable-oil-trade-seen-hitting-record-high-led-by-rapeseed-and-sunflower-usda) *Cite as: The Feed Report, "How will the USDA-projected 2% rise in global vegetable oil exports to 141 million tons in 2026/27 affect rapeseed and soy oil inclusion rates in animal feed?", https://feedsoft.ai/questions/how-will-the-usda-projected-2-rise-in-global-vegetable-oil-exports-to-141-million-tons-in-2026-27-af-3203c8b1 (as of 2026-10-16).*