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The ECB announced fresh coronavirus stimulus but held its deposit rate unchanged, which disappointed markets that had expected a cut. The euro fell to $1.1198 as investors rushed into dollars, and the dollar index rose 1.1% to 97.60 as cross-currency swap spreads widened.
A stronger dollar driven by a funding squeeze tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and widens the gap for non-US feed buyers facing a weaker local currency.
financialpost.comReuters12 de mar. de 2020
cnbc.comReuters12 de mar. de 2020Após 2.356 eventos altista de macro passados, Dólar americano (amplo) subiu em mediana +0,2% em 5 sessões (60% de alta; metade central de -0,3% a +0,7%), e +0,4% em 20.
Após 533 eventos baixista de macro passados, Euro (USD por EUR) subiu em mediana -0,3% em 5 sessões (33% de alta; metade central de -1,2% a +0,2%), e -0,5% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
Same-day ECB decision to hold the deposit rate (no cut) while the dollar surged on a dash for liquidity and wider swap spreads directly explains the euro's roughly 1.8% drop against the dollar.
On 12 March the ECB disappointed by holding its deposit rate while a dollar funding squeeze widened swap spreads, so the euro fell to $1.1198 at the start of the 5-day window.
The ECB's 12 March package disappointed markets and widening cross-currency swap spreads sparked a dollar rush, setting up the euro's weakness, though it falls several days before the 17 March move.
