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China is expected to ship at least 1.2 million tonnes of urea to India, marking a ramp-up after Beijing loosened export controls. The volume would make up at least two-thirds of India's latest tender, with shipments due to leave by September 24.
Prices surged to a four-year high in April but have since fallen back.
Chinese tonnage flowing to India's tender increases available urea supply and signals improving market balance, which is bearish for nitrogen fertilizer prices.
business-standard.comBloomberg27 de ago. de 2026Após 81 eventos baixista de comércio passados, Ureia subiu em mediana -1,0% em 5 sessões (28% de alta; metade central de -7,2% a +0,4%), e -5,5% em 20.
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China's large urea shipments to India in the tender (published Aug 27, just before the move) reshape trade flows and price discovery, so they plausibly contributed to the jump.
Duplicate coverage of China's 1.2 Mt shipment to India under the loosened export controls, affecting global supply and demand balance ahead of the move.
