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Marin Bozic of the University of Minnesota says US September milk production rose 2.4% year on year, while only 16% of milk was covered by Dairy Revenue Protection for January to March 2021, down from 31% in the third quarter. He argues that CFAP and food box programs supported 2020 dairy incomes but may not continue at the same scale in 2021.
He also flags possible dairy-specific disruptions from limited US cheese capacity.
Rising milk supply and less hedging, combined with possible withdrawal of government support, point to downside risk for milk prices and dairy demand in 2021.
hoards.comMarin Bozic6 de nov. de 2020Após 49 eventos baixista de macro passados, Leite (Classe III) subiu em mediana -0,6% em 5 sessões (33% de alta; metade central de -8,5% a +0,6%), e -7,5% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
