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Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports.
Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.
Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.
farmonline.com.auAndrew Marshall24 de abr. de 2024Após 34 eventos baixista de política passados, Ureia subiu em mediana -0,8% em 5 sessões (38% de alta; metade central de -3,3% a +1,8%), e -4,5% em 20.
Após 50 eventos baixista de política passados, DAP subiu em mediana +0,9% em 5 sessões (62% de alta; metade central de -0,1% a +1,6%), e +0,9% em 20.
Após 13 eventos altista de política passados, Gás natural subiu em mediana -1,7% em 5 sessões (46% de alta; metade central de -2,4% a +4,5%), e +5,3% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop.
Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop.
Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly.
Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies.
