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US crude futures fell 20% on Monday, the largest one-day slide since the 1991 Gulf War, after OPEC and allies failed to agree on new output cuts and let production curbs lapse. US shale producers moved quickly to cut spending and output.
Shale cutbacks may eventually tighten supply, but the immediate effect is lower crude prices that reduce energy costs and biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils.
reuters.comJennifer Hiller9 de mar. de 2020Após 255 eventos baixista de geopolítica passados, Petróleo (WTI) subiu em mediana -2,4% em 5 sessões (31% de alta; metade central de -7,0% a +1,7%), e -5,0% em 20.
Após 250 eventos baixista de geopolítica passados, Petróleo (Brent) subiu em mediana -3,1% em 5 sessões (36% de alta; metade central de -7,9% a +1,6%), e -5,5% em 20.
Após 162 eventos de geopolítica passados, Gás natural subiu em mediana +2,2% em 5 sessões (61% de alta; metade central de -2,0% a +7,5%), e +4,1% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
The oil price crash on 2020-03-09 led US shale producers to cut spending and output, which would reduce associated gas supply and plausibly supported the natural gas rebound the next day, though the direction is indirect and sentiment-driven so confidence is moderate.
The 20% one-day crude slide after OPEC+ talks failed drove broad energy-sector selling and sentiment, and US shale output cuts would reduce associated gas supply, though the net effect on natural gas was mostly bearish via sentiment.
Confirms the lapse of OPEC+ curbs drove the record one-day fall in US crude, a contemporaneous reflection of the supply shock, though the shale response is a consequence rather than a cause.
