Analysis: Exchange rate caught between external factors and fiscal risks

Após 301 eventos altista de macro passados, Real brasileiro (BRL por USD) subiu em mediana +0,4% em 5 sessões (57% de alta; metade central de -1,2% a +1,7%), e +1,0% em 20.

• 14 de jun. de 2022Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank+0,7%
• 28 de jul. de 2025Dollar approaches R$5,60 again, driven by external factors after agreement between the US and EU | Brasil 247-0,4%
• 17 de abr. de 2024Haddad blames external factors for weakened real-1,4%
• 1 de out. de 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank-3,5%
• 15 de mai. de 2020Brazil Exchange Rate May 2020 - FocusEconomics-5,4%

Após 117 eventos baixista de macro passados, Farelo de soja subiu em mediana -0,6% em 5 sessões (41% de alta; metade central de -2,5% a +1,7%), e +0,5% em 20.

• 22 de out. de 2021Unofficial exchange rate shows Argentina's de facto devaluation — MercoPress+1,5%
• 1 de out. de 2026Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank+3,2%
• 29 de out. de 2026The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.-3,3%
• 30 de jun. de 2023Brazilian Real Technical Analysis: USD/BRL, EUR/BRL+1,6%
• 14 de mai. de 2018IMF says supports Argentina floating exchange rate as peso tumbles-1,7%