The spot dollar closed at 5.6588 reais on Tuesday, down 1.44% after a surge in prior sessions, as global markets eased recession fears. Brazil's Copom minutes signaled the central bank may raise the Selic rate in the short term if needed to curb inflation.
Expectations of Selic hikes support the real and can make Brazilian commodity exports pricier in dollar terms, while the easing of global risk aversion affects emerging-market currency flows relevant to feed trade.
Após 213 eventos baixista de macro passados, Real brasileiro (BRL por USD) subiu em mediana -0,2% em 5 sessões (46% de alta; metade central de -1,5% a +0,9%), e +0,2% em 20.
Variações do benchmark de cada commodity desde o último fechamento antes do evento. As leituras históricas agregam eventos passados do mesmo tipo; descrevem o que aconteceu, não o que vai acontecer. Não é recomendação de investimento.
On 2024-08-06 the dollar closed down 1.44% against the real as global recession fears eased and Copom minutes hinted at possible Selic hikes, which directly explains the real's rebound (sentiment and rate-differential mechanism).
On Aug 6 the dollar fell 1.44% against the real as global recession fears eased and Copom minutes hinted at a possible Selic hike, which supports BRL through risk sentiment and the rate differential.