Laden…
ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15.
They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.
Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris Turner2 mrt 2020Na 1.637 eerdere neerwaarts macro-gebeurtenissen bewoog Amerikaanse dollar (breed) zich mediaan -0,2% over 5 sessies (39% hoger; middelste helft -0,6% tot +0,3%), en -0,2% over 20.
Na 388 eerdere opwaarts macro-gebeurtenissen bewoog Euro (USD per EUR) zich mediaan +0,3% over 5 sessies (62% hoger; middelste helft -0,4% tot +1,1%), en +0,1% over 20.
Na 565 eerdere neerwaarts macro-gebeurtenissen bewoog Ruwe olie (WTI) zich mediaan -1,4% over 5 sessies (41% hoger; middelste helft -5,9% tot +3,0%), en -0,5% over 20.
Bewegingen van de benchmark van elke grondstof sinds de laatste slotkoers vóór de gebeurtenis. Historische waarden bundelen eerdere gebeurtenissen van hetzelfde soort; ze beschrijven wat er gebeurde, niet wat zal gebeuren. Geen beleggingsadvies.
On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD.
Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver.
Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move.
