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The US Department of Commerce preliminarily found that phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia benefit from countervailable subsidies. Calculated rates were 23.46% for OCP in Morocco, and 20.94%, 72.5% and 32.92% for Russian producers, with cash deposits to begin within days.
Final determinations are due by February 8, 2021.
Preliminary duties of up to 72.5% sharply raise the cost of imported phosphate into the US, which should lift domestic DAP and phosphate prices and tighten import flows.
investors.mosaicco.com24 nov 2020
thefederalregister.orgCommerce Department, International Trade Administration23 nov 2020
trade.gov24 nov 2020Nog niet genoeg vergelijkbare eerdere gebeurtenissen voor een historische analyse.
Na 193 eerdere opwaarts handel-gebeurtenissen bewoog DAP zich mediaan +0,4% over 5 sessies (54% hoger; middelste helft -0,3% tot +1,8%), en +1,9% over 20.
Bewegingen van de benchmark van elke grondstof sinds de laatste slotkoers vóór de gebeurtenis. Historische waarden bundelen eerdere gebeurtenissen van hetzelfde soort; ze beschrijven wat er gebeurde, niet wat zal gebeuren. Geen beleggingsadvies.
Commerce's preliminary CVD rates (21-72.5%) on Moroccan and Russian phosphate, announced Nov 23 with cash deposits starting within days, restrict US import supply and likely drove DAP higher in the window.
