Russia’s Early-Season Grain Exports Drop Below Half of Average
Russian grain exports in the first months of 2026/27 were less than half their long-term average after terminal damage and shipping disruption. Alternative routes are not expected to replace the lost capacity, and full-season exports could fall below 40 million tonnes.
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Russian grain shipments fall sharply. Exports in the first months of 2026/27 were less than half their long-term average.
Shipping routes disrupted. Attacks damaged terminals in the Azov–Black Sea basin, disrupting shipments through Novorossiysk and the Azov–Don Canal.
Alternative routes gain volume. Other routes are carrying more grain, but are not expected to replace the lost capacity.
Full-season exports could fall below 40 million tonnes. That is an outlook for 2026/27, not a final export total.
More grain may stay in Russia. Reduced export capacity could leave more grain inside Russia and limit availability to international buyers.
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