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Oil prices dropped sharply after Iran's retaliation against a U.S. military base in Qatar was limited and telegraphed. Prices fell further after Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire.
The episode suggests Middle East tensions have less lasting impact on crude than before, so risk premiums are unwinding and energy input costs for feed are easing.
reuters.comRon Bousso2025. 6. 25.과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -3.1% 변동(상승 36%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.9%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 -5.5%.
과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 255건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.4% 변동(상승 31%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.0%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -5.0%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
Limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and the ceasefire announcement drove prices lower as the supply-risk premium faded.
Prices dropped because Iran's retaliation was limited and telegraphed, with the ceasefire announcement adding to the decline; the ceasefire part falls partly outside the June 23 window.
Oil dropped on the limited, telegraphed Iranian retaliation and then the ceasefire, which lowered the supply-risk premium.
