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Oil prices fell sharply on February 2 as concerns about US military action in Iran subsided and nuclear talks appeared close. The US and India also agreed a trade deal that lowers US tariffs on Indian goods and ends the extra tariff tied to Indian purchases of Russian oil.
The analysts expect this to increase the volume of Russian crude available at sea.
Lower tariffs and a possible drop in Indian purchases of discounted Russian crude could push more Russian oil into the market and widen the Urals discount. That would weigh on global crude prices and could eventually force Russian output cuts.
think.ing.comWarren Patterson, Ewa Manthey2026. 2. 3.과거 하락 무역 이벤트 56건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -5.6% 변동(상승 20%; 중간 50% 범위 -9.0%~-1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -4.5%.
과거 하락 무역 이벤트 80건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.2% 변동(상승 30%; 중간 50% 범위 -6.9%~+0.8%), 20거래일 동안 -1.5%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
ING attributes the Feb 2 oil drop to fading fears of US military action in Iran, and the US-India deal could raise Russian crude supply at sea.
