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2026. 3. 2.지정학중동

Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn

Brent crude jumped as much as 13% to above $82 a barrel at the Monday open after US and Israeli attacks on Iran escalated over the weekend. Oil markets are bracing for prolonged volatility and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

중요한 이유

Disruption risk in Hormuz threatens a large share of global oil and LNG flows, pushing up energy costs for feed production and transport and supporting vegetable oil and biofuel-linked prices.

영향 대상원유 (Brent)▲원유 (WTI)▲ULSD / 디젤▲천연가스▲대두유▲팜유▲

출처 1건
bloomberg.comRong Wei Neo2026. 3. 2.

가격 반응 및 이력

원유 (Brent)▲상승현재까지1d +7.8%5d +31.0%20d +62.6%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 656건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.9% 변동(상승 63%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.7%~+6.6%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.

2026. 3. 12.Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg+23.1%
2026. 4. 28.Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Tensions Push WTI Near $100 and Brent Above $111, Threatening Global Energy Markets+4.8%
2026. 4. 1.How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-12.2%
2026. 7. 31.Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-4.9%
2026. 3. 1.Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+31.0%

원유 (WTI)▲상승현재까지1d +6.2%5d +35.6%20d +50.4%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 626건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +2.1% 변동(상승 62%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.3%~+8.5%), 20거래일 동안 +1.6%.

2026. 3. 12.Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg+10.6%
2023. 3. 27.Oil Holds Surge as Supply Disruption Adds to Market Optimism - Bloomberg+9.3%
2026. 4. 28.Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Tensions Push WTI Near $100 and Brent Above $111, Threatening Global Energy Markets+10.1%
2026. 4. 1.How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-6.6%
2026. 7. 31.Supply Disruptions Underpin Crude Oil Prices-7.4%

ULSD / 디젤▲상승현재까지1d +10.0%5d +36.4%20d +69.9%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, ULSD / 디젤은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -3.6%~+8.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 3. 12.Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg+15.3%
2026. 9. 15.US diesel prices hit new all-time high amid global supply disruptions, strong demand | S&P Global-1.7%
2026. 3. 7.US pump prices surge as Iran war upends global energy supply | Reuters+10.4%
2026. 10. 2.Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+8.4%
2026. 3. 3.Iran War Sends Diesel Prices Soaring All Over the World on Supply Chokepoints - Bloomberg+17.7%

천연가스▲상승현재까지1d +1.8%5d +7.5%20d +4.0%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 136건 이후, 천연가스은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +2.7% 변동(상승 63%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.8%~+8.8%), 20거래일 동안 +4.0%.

2026. 4. 28.Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Tensions Push WTI Near $100 and Brent Above $111, Threatening Global Energy Markets+5.1%
2026. 4. 1.How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-4.5%
2026. 3. 1.Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+7.5%
2022. 4. 8.Global energy upheaval threatens years of natural gas shortages | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services+14.8%
2026. 3. 3.Global oil and gas prices soar as Iran crisis disrupts shipping, production | Reuters+7.0%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

원유 (Brent)+8.3%1개 기간 · 2026. 3. 2.까지4.0σ
Brent jumped as much as 13% at the Monday open on the weekend escalation and Hormuz disruption fears, driving the 1-day move.
팜유+6.5%5개 기간 · 2026. 3. 8.까지3.4σ
Brent jumped as much as 13% on March 2 on Hormuz disruption fears, lifting vegetable oils through energy-linked biodiesel demand and sentiment.
팜유+2.8%1개 기간 · 2026. 3. 6.까지3.2σ
The Brent spike of up to 13% on 2026-03-02 from Hormuz disruption set the crude rally that lifts palm oil via biofuel substitution, though it came several days before the 2026-03-06 move and likely was partly priced in.

원유 (Brent) BRENT · GP ▸

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원유 (WTI) WTI · GP ▸

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