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Rabobank's second quarter global beef report identifies weather as the most disruptive influence on the US beef complex, with extreme drought across Southern Plains grazing regions forcing early calf placements. Cattle on feed was estimated at 11.5 million head as of May 1, 5% above last year.
Drought-forced placements have inflated feedlot numbers and risk bunched fed cattle marketings this summer, pressuring cash fed cattle prices. Continued drought could trigger liquidation and tighter supplies into 2019.
beefmagazine.comBurt Rutherford2018. 5. 30.과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 18건 이후, 생우은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 56%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+0.9%), 20거래일 동안 -0.1%.
과거 하락 날씨 이벤트 29건 이후, 비육용 소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 62%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.5%~+2.6%), 20거래일 동안 +2.4%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
Southern Plains drought forcing early calf placements implies tighter future feeder supplies, a supportive supply factor, though the early placements would be bearish near term.
