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ABN AMRO says Brazil faces external and domestic headwinds but is less vulnerable than Turkey because it has a smaller current account deficit and stronger foreign direct investment inflows. The bank flags the fiscal deficit, which has run above 5% of GDP since 2015, as the weakest point.
It expects the central bank to hold rates for the rest of 2018 and resume tightening in 2019.
Brazil's fiscal weakness and election uncertainty keep the real exposed to risk-off episodes, which can swing the cost of dollar-priced Brazilian grain and meal. Expected stable Selic rates through 2018 limit near-term currency support from monetary policy.
forexcrunch.comFX Street2018. 8. 29.과거 중립 거시 이벤트 92건 이후, 브라질 헤알 (USD당 BRL)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+1.4%), 20거래일 동안 +0.4%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
