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StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects global phosphate values to stay under pressure into mid-2023 because world demand has been weaker than expected. He also cites China returning to normal export volumes and a high-cost Florida producer seeing its costs fall.
Expected weak demand and rising Chinese supply point to lower phosphate prices, which lowers DAP costs for feed phosphate buyers. Fall and spring demand are seen as cautious, so the pressure may persist.
stonex.comJosh Linville2023. 4. 27.stonex.comJosh Linville2023. 4. 27.과거 중립 무역 이벤트 480건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.1%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.
과거 하락 무역 이벤트 40건 이후, DAP은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 38%; 중간 50% 범위 -3.7%~+0.5%), 20거래일 동안 -2.4%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
StoneX expects phosphate prices to stay under pressure because global demand is weaker than expected, China is returning to normal export volumes, and a high-cost Florida producer's costs are falling, all of which point to bearish supply and demand fundamentals consistent with a sharp DAP drop.
Dated 2023-04-27, a day before the drop, it signals weak global phosphate demand, China returning to normal export volumes and falling producer costs, all bearish for DAP prices and plausibly feeding a sharp one-day selloff.
StoneX's bearish view on phosphates (weak global demand, China returning to normal export volumes, falling producer costs) published on the move date points to supply-side and sentiment pressure on DAP prices.
StoneX expects phosphate values to stay under pressure due to weaker-than-expected demand and China returning to normal export volumes, which reinforces the bearish supply/demand mechanism.
