◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2022. 3. 21.지정학흑해

U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting

U.S. wheat and corn futures jumped on Monday as traders expected Black Sea exports to stay disrupted by fighting in Ukraine. Soybeans rose sharply alongside crude oil, which gained on disruptions to energy shipments tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The May soft red winter wheat contract rose 7.6%, briefly hitting its daily limit.

중요한 이유

Expected loss of Black Sea grain supply lifts global wheat and corn prices, and higher crude oil increases biofuel and feed input costs.

영향 대상밀 (SRW)▲옥수수▲대두▲원유 (WTI)▲

출처 1건
financialpost.comReuters2022. 3. 21.

가격 반응 및 이력

밀 (SRW)▲상승현재까지1d +16.1%5d +15.8%20d +5.9%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.

2023. 2. 10.U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns-2.5%
2022. 2. 28.Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+12.1%
2022. 9. 28.Wheat up on war worries; corn, soy also firm despite recession fears | Financial Post+1.3%
2022. 2. 28.Wheat jumps most in a decade; corn, soybeans firm on supply woes | Financial Post+12.1%
2022. 2. 24.AgriMarketing.com - Wheat Prices Soar Following Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine+6.8%

옥수수▲상승현재까지1d +1.7%5d +1.5%20d +11.2%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2023. 2. 10.U.S. Wheat Futures Jump on Ukraine, Russia Shipment Concerns-0.6%
2022. 2. 28.Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+10.4%
2022. 9. 28.Wheat up on war worries; corn, soy also firm despite recession fears | Financial Post+1.9%
2022. 2. 28.Wheat jumps most in a decade; corn, soybeans firm on supply woes | Financial Post+10.4%
2019. 9. 16.Corn firms as oil rally offsets good crop weather in U.S. Midwest | Financial Post+3.4%

대두▲상승현재까지1d +1.4%5d +2.5%20d +2.8%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 72건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 60%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.0%~+2.5%), 20거래일 동안 -1.0%.

2022. 2. 28.Wheat Continues Surge on Black Sea Supply Concerns as Ukraine-Russia Crisis Continues+5.4%
2022. 9. 28.Wheat up on war worries; corn, soy also firm despite recession fears | Financial Post-1.7%
2022. 2. 28.Wheat jumps most in a decade; corn, soybeans firm on supply woes | Financial Post+5.4%
2022. 2. 22.Grains, soybeans rally on fear of Russia-Ukraine conflict, surging oil | Reuters+2.7%
2019. 9. 16.Corn firms as oil rally offsets good crop weather in U.S. Midwest | Financial Post-0.2%

원유 (WTI)▲상승현재까지1d +7.1%5d +10.3%20d +3.4%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 626건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +2.1% 변동(상승 62%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.3%~+8.5%), 20거래일 동안 +1.6%.

2022. 2. 22.Grains, soybeans rally on fear of Russia-Ukraine conflict, surging oil | Reuters+5.3%
2019. 9. 16.Corn firms as oil rally offsets good crop weather in U.S. Midwest | Financial Post+5.8%
2024. 10. 1.U.S. grains: Wheat rallies on drought, geopolitical tensions; corn follows | Farmtario+13.1%
2025. 2. 19.Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed | Reuters-4.2%
2022. 2. 26.Will diesel fuel prices go up with Russia's invasion of Ukraine? | Commercial Carrier Journal+26.3%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

밀 (SRW)+11.5%1개 기간 · 2022. 3. 21.까지5.3σ
Reports the 21 March rally in SRW wheat (May contract up 7.6%, briefly limit-up) on expectations that Black Sea exports stay disrupted, directly describing the move.
밀 (SRW)+10.8%5개 기간 · 2022. 3. 23.까지2.8σ
On 2022-03-21 SRW May futures jumped 7.6% and briefly hit the daily limit on expectations that Black Sea exports would stay disrupted, which accounts for much of the 5-day gain.
원유 (WTI)+16.7%5개 기간 · 2022. 3. 21.까지3.1σ
On March 21 crude gained on fears of disrupted energy shipments from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, directly supporting the final day of the 5-day rally.

밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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