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2019. 11. 29.날씨글로벌

WMO issues El Niño/La Niña update - World

The WMO update estimates a 65% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions for December 2019 through February 2020, with 30% odds of El Niño and 5% of La Niña. Sea surface temperatures are expected to return to near-average levels after November and stay neutral into the first half of 2020.

중요한 이유

A neutral outlook reduces the likelihood of a strong weather shock to Southeast Asian palm oil, Australian wheat or South American crops, so no major supply premium is implied from ENSO alone.

영향 대상팜유◆밀 (SRW)◆

출처 1건
reliefweb.int2019. 11. 29.

가격 반응 및 이력

팜유◆중립현재까지1d +0.2%5d +6.9%20d +10.9%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 19건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.4%~+1.1%), 20거래일 동안 +2.4%.

2017. 7. 7.WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World | ReliefWeb+0.2%
2026. 3. 3.El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World | ReliefWeb+6.5%
2018. 9. 27.Seasonal Outlook: Haze Update – El Niño Ready Nations-0.8%
2023. 2. 21.As La Niña Exits, Palm Oil Production Could Rise in 2023 but Drop in 2024+0.5%
2017. 8. 11.El Niño Outlook for August 2017-0.1%

밀 (SRW)◆중립현재까지1d +0.6%5d -0.1%20d -1.3%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 224건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 46%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.4%.

2017. 7. 7.WMO El Niño/La Niña Update, 7 July 2017 - World | ReliefWeb-1.7%
2026. 3. 3.El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2026) - World | ReliefWeb+1.8%
2018. 4. 2.WMO El Niño/La Niña Update – March 2018 | La Niña Ready Nations+1.6%
2020. 5. 28.El Niño / La Niña Update (May 2020)-0.7%
2019. 8. 20.El Niño/La Niña Update (August 2019)+2.0%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

팜유 PALMOIL · GP ▸

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밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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