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StoneX analyst Nate Donnay estimates that US government dairy purchases in 2020 pushed the CME block cheese price up about 64 cents per pound and butter up 31 cents from May through November. He estimates the purchases lifted the average Class III milk price by about $6.30/cwt and Class IV by about $1.31/cwt.
Purchases through the food box program and other programs totaled roughly $1.33 billion.
Government buying has been a major source of dairy price support and volatility, so feed buyers should expect dairy-linked demand and milk prices to be sensitive to any reduction in these programs.
hoards.comNate Donnay, StoneX Group Inc.2020. 11. 30.과거 상승 정책 이벤트 17건 이후, 우유 (Class III)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.6% 변동(상승 29%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.6%~+0.2%), 20거래일 동안 -3.0%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
Shows government food box purchases had inflated cheese and Class III prices, so their fading removed support and fed the reversal.
