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Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports.
Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.
Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.
farmonline.com.auAndrew Marshall2024. 4. 24.과거 하락 정책 이벤트 34건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.8% 변동(상승 38%; 중간 50% 범위 -3.3%~+1.8%), 20거래일 동안 -4.5%.
과거 하락 정책 이벤트 50건 이후, DAP은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.9% 변동(상승 62%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.1%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.
과거 상승 정책 이벤트 13건 이후, 천연가스은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -1.7% 변동(상승 46%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.4%~+4.5%), 20거래일 동안 +5.3%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop.
Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop.
Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly.
Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies.
