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US crude futures fell 20% on Monday, the largest one-day slide since the 1991 Gulf War, after OPEC and allies failed to agree on new output cuts and let production curbs lapse. US shale producers moved quickly to cut spending and output.
Shale cutbacks may eventually tighten supply, but the immediate effect is lower crude prices that reduce energy costs and biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils.
reuters.comJennifer Hiller2020. 3. 9.과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 255건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -2.4% 변동(상승 31%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.0%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 -5.0%.
과거 하락 지정학 이벤트 250건 이후, 원유 (Brent)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -3.1% 변동(상승 36%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.9%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 -5.5%.
과거 지정학 이벤트 162건 이후, 천연가스은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +2.2% 변동(상승 61%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.0%~+7.5%), 20거래일 동안 +4.1%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
The oil price crash on 2020-03-09 led US shale producers to cut spending and output, which would reduce associated gas supply and plausibly supported the natural gas rebound the next day, though the direction is indirect and sentiment-driven so confidence is moderate.
The 20% one-day crude slide after OPEC+ talks failed drove broad energy-sector selling and sentiment, and US shale output cuts would reduce associated gas supply, though the net effect on natural gas was mostly bearish via sentiment.
Confirms the lapse of OPEC+ curbs drove the record one-day fall in US crude, a contemporaneous reflection of the supply shock, though the shale response is a consequence rather than a cause.
