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2023. 2. 6.날씨글로벌

Four possible consequences of El Niño returning in 2023

A Priestley Centre blog says the equatorial Pacific is expected to return to neutral between March and May 2023 after three consecutive La Niña years. It adds that El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the northern autumn and winter.

The piece frames ENSO as a driver of global precipitation and temperature patterns.

중요한 이유

A shift toward El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of Asia, Australia and Southeast Asia later in 2023, which can tighten supplies of crops such as palm oil, grains and oilseeds. The price effect would depend on how strong the event becomes.

영향 대상옥수수 대두 밀 (SRW)팜유

출처 1건
climate.leeds.ac.ukClare Martynski2023. 2. 6.

가격 반응 및 이력

옥수수방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d +1.9%5d +2.0%20d -3.2%

과거 날씨 이벤트 2,467건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.6%.

2017. 3. 1.Return of El Niño | RNZ-0.7%
2023. 2. 13.Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton-1.3%
2026. 5. 21.What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets-1.7%
2017. 4. 18.IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return-0.6%
2026. 2. 12.US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 | Reuters-0.0%

대두방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d -0.7%5d +0.7%20d +0.6%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,964건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.8%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2017. 3. 1.Return of El Niño | RNZ-1.0%
2023. 2. 13.Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton-1.0%
2026. 5. 21.What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets-0.4%
2017. 4. 18.IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return+0.8%
2026. 2. 12.US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 | Reuters+1.5%

밀 (SRW)방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d +2.1%5d +2.9%20d -4.5%

과거 날씨 이벤트 1,773건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.1% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.1%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

2023. 2. 13.Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton-3.2%
2026. 6. 1.Record global temperatures possible as chance of a 'super El Niño' grows-2.6%
2026. 5. 21.What a Possible 2026/27 Super El Niño Means for Commodity Markets-1.6%
2017. 4. 18.IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return+1.0%
2023. 10. 30.El Niño Forecast to Contribute to Food Insecurity - NASA Science+2.3%

팜유방향성 판단 없음현재까지1d 0.0%5d +0.8%20d +5.9%

과거 날씨 이벤트 361건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 51%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.3%~+1.3%), 20거래일 동안 -0.2%.

2023. 2. 13.Possible Extreme Outcomes for 2023 Cotton+1.2%
2017. 4. 18.IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return+0.3%
2023. 7. 7.Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024-0.1%
2026. 10. 1.El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply-5.8%
2026. 8. 1.El Niño 2026: Converging Pressures on Vegetable Oil Markets - Center for Commercial Agriculture+2.0%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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대두 SOY · GP ▸

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