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StoneX's Josh Linville says China's phosphate export program is around 4 million tonnes, less than half its typical 9-10 million, and India has been forced to buy at rising prices from the mid-$640s to the $750s per tonne. NOLA urea fell $70/t in one week, and potash is well supplied with modest downside expected.
Tight Chinese phosphate exports should keep DAP and MAP prices firm into summer, while urea and potash softness may offer some relief to feed-grain input costs.
stonex.comGustian Farrow2025. 5. 20.과거 상승 무역 이벤트 193건 이후, DAP은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.3%~+1.8%), 20거래일 동안 +1.9%.
과거 하락 무역 이벤트 81건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -1.0% 변동(상승 28%; 중간 50% 범위 -7.2%~+0.4%), 20거래일 동안 -5.5%.
과거 비교 가능한 이벤트가 아직 부족해 이력 분석을 할 수 없습니다.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
StoneX notes China's phosphate export program is under half its normal volume while India pays rising prices (mid-$640s to $750s), a direct supply-tightness and trade-flow driver for DAP.
NOLA urea fell $70/t in one week in mid-to-late May, showing the downward price momentum that fed into the 5-day drop ending June 2.
Tight Chinese phosphate export supply and India forced to buy at rising prices ($640s to $750s) signal upward DAP price pressure heading into the move.
