War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply

과거 날씨 이벤트 37건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.4% 변동(상승 73%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.1%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +5.6%.

• 2026. 5. 31.Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• 2021. 9. 3.US Nola urea barges hit 9 year high with supply tightening post Hurricane Ida+8.6%
• 2021. 2. 19.US Gulf urea values recover as gas diversions and production cutbacks bring producers to the market; activity elsewhere limited+1.5%
• 2026. 1. 21.Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%
• 2025. 2. 23.US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño – Chemicals and the Economy-0.3%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 322건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 49%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.5%~+3.2%), 20거래일 동안 +1.0%.

• 2018. 5. 29.Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-7.5%
• 2026. 5. 31.Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-4.5%
• 2019. 5. 15.The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+8.5%
• 2025. 1. 29.Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining+6.0%
• 2026. 9. 21.Wheat prices near multi-year highs as war, weather, and harvest shortfalls converge By Investing.com-4.1%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,072건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 55%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.3%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

• 2018. 5. 29.Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-0.9%
• 2026. 5. 31.Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-2.6%
• 2019. 5. 15.The price of wheat in the United States and Europe has increased dramatically+11.2%
• 2021. 5. 13.A"maize"ing global support for wheat prices | The Land | NSW-1.8%
• 2025. 5. 9.Tight Wheat Supply Leaves Prices at Mercy of Any Weather Shocks - Bloomberg-0.1%