Indonesia 2026 crude palm oil output to fall due to El Nino, high fertiliser prices, association says

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 181건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 56%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.9%~+1.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

• 2023. 9. 29.Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output-4.5%
• 2023. 11. 23.El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine-0.7%
• 2026. 8. 28.El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says+4.5%
• 2026. 9. 2.El Niño to crimp Indonesian palm oil output, producer group says - MPOC-0.5%
• 2026. 10. 22.Palm oil prices to stay high next year on Southeast Asia drought-0.4%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 30건 이후, 요소은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.4% 변동(상승 67%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.3%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +9.1%.

• 2026. 5. 31.Wheat Futures Prices Have Surged 30% This Year As Iran War Hit Fertilizer Supplies and U.S. Drought Sent Output To A 54-Year Low-21.5%
• 2026. 4. 2.Raising energy and fertilizer prices and upcoming El Niño main concerns to farming - Joint Research Centre+1.6%
• 2026. 1. 21.Natural Gas Prices Soar as Winter Storm Is Set to Drop Snow, Ice Across Massive Swath of the US - Bloomberg+1.6%
• 2026. 1. 26.Natural gas prices hit $6 as Winter Storm Fern brings extreme cold+1.6%
• 2026. 5. 5.Mixed results ahead for plantation sector in 1Q26 | The Star-4.2%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 184건 이후, 대두유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.3% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.9%~+2.4%), 20거래일 동안 -0.5%.

• 2023. 9. 29.Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output+0.8%
• 2023. 11. 23.El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine-1.1%
• 2016. 11. 24.Lower palm oil output into early next year likely to support prices - The Business Times+2.1%
• 2026. 10. 1.El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply+1.8%
• 2024. 10. 25.Malaysia’s palm oil surge: What’s driving prices to biggest highs since 2022?+3.9%