Analysis: Black Sea conflict may alter global trade patterns for grains, veg oil

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 361건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.7% 변동(상승 58%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 +1.3%.

• 2026. 8. 20.FACTBOX: Black Sea grain trade strained by escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict | S&P Global-1.3%
• 2026. 8. 27.Egypt faces wheat supply crunch as Black Sea conflict escalates | S&P Global+4.0%
• 2023. 7. 20.Black Sea conflict boosts wheat prices in Southeast Asia, Australia | S&P Global-0.7%
• 2022. 3. 10.Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam-3.3%
• 2023. 7. 18.Black Sea grain deal eased global food prices — now it's off and analysts are warning of a price 'roller-coaster' - ABC News+2.0%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 323건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 57%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.5%~+2.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

• 2026. 8. 20.FACTBOX: Black Sea grain trade strained by escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict | S&P Global+5.4%
• 2022. 3. 10.Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade – The Seam+2.5%
• 2023. 7. 18.Black Sea grain deal eased global food prices — now it's off and analysts are warning of a price 'roller-coaster' - ABC News+18.0%
• 2026. 7. 24.Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-3.8%
• 2022. 1. 28.Ukraine conflict would destabilise Black Sea trade, sanctions ‘inevitable’, say lawyers+1.3%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 110건 이후, 대두유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.8% 변동(상승 65%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.7%~+3.6%), 20거래일 동안 -0.4%.

• 2022. 10. 30.Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt+3.1%
• 2022. 6. 1.Global events spur search for alternative oils | Food Business News+2.3%
• 2026. 7. 27.Black Sea grain trapped as Russia, Ukraine attacks continue | World Grain-5.7%
• 2026. 10. 1.Global vegetable oil prices seen rising on tighter supply, says analyst Mielke - Markets - Business Recorder+2.3%
• 2022. 5. 3.The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global vegetable oil market | IFPRI+3.0%

과거 상승 지정학 이벤트 62건 이후, 팜유은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +2.5% 변동(상승 74%; 중간 50% 범위 -0.1%~+5.8%), 20거래일 동안 +4.0%.

• 2026. 10. 1.Global vegetable oil prices seen rising on tighter supply, says analyst Mielke - Markets - Business Recorder-0.4%
• 2022. 5. 3.The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the global vegetable oil market | IFPRI-9.5%
• 2022. 10. 31.U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters+11.7%
• 2023. 7. 20.Palm oil futures hit four-month high as Black Sea tensions escalate+1.6%
• 2022. 2. 23.Palm oil futures hit all-time high on bullish global energy, vegetable oil markets+15.0%