Have Brazilian soybean estimates slipped too far from reality?

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 324건 이후, 대두은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.0% 변동(상승 52%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.

• 2026. 4. 12.Brazil Soybean Harvest Nears Completion | Red River Farm Network-0.7%
• 2022. 12. 26.Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+0.6%
• 2023. 1. 19.Brazil Soybeans 0.6% Harvested, Wet Weather Slows Early Harvest-1.4%
• 2018. 1. 26.Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-0.7%
• 2019. 12. 26.Brazil Corn and Soybeans Developing Nicely | Red River Farm Network+0.8%

과거 중립 날씨 이벤트 55건 이후, 대두박은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 -0.1% 변동(상승 47%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.7%~+1.5%), 20거래일 동안 +0.1%.

• 2022. 12. 26.Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+5.7%
• 2026. 4. 6.Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil+4.0%
• 2018. 1. 26.Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-1.9%
• 2018. 9. 28.Damaged soy crop hits farmers reeling from U.S.-China trade war+0.1%
• 2022. 12. 26.Dry Conditions Slow Soybean Planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil+5.7%