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2026. 5. 21.날씨글로벌

Transition to El Nino signals drought relief, but global crop disruption looms

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center gives an 82% chance that El Niño forms within three months and persists into winter 2026-2027. USDA's Brad Rippey says El Niño could bring drought relief to the Southern Plains later in the year but is unlikely to affect the Corn Belt this summer.

The pattern is expected to bring tougher conditions to South America, Australia, Brazil and India.

중요한 이유

Expected El Niño dryness in Australia, Brazil and India could tighten global grain and oilseed supplies, supporting export prices and feed-ingredient costs later in the year.

영향 대상CORN▲SOY▲WHEAT▲SBM▲PALMOIL▲

출처 1건
profarmer.comDebbie Carlson2026. 5. 21.

가격 반응 및 이력

CORN▲상승현재까지1d -0.5%5d -1.7%20d -7.1%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,465건 이후, CORN은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+1.9%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 3. 12.El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg+3.7%
2021. 12. 3.La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - AgriBusiness Global+7.1%
2023. 6. 29.US Midwest drought expands, but forecast rains offer relief to crops | Reuters-2.5%
2026. 2. 12.Drought Monitor shows conditions intensify across the lower 48 - Pro Farmer-0.0%
2020. 11. 10.U.S. corn crop’s growing sensitivity to drought revealed - Future Farming+9.7%

SOY▲상승현재까지1d -0.5%5d -0.4%20d -6.4%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,079건 이후, SOY은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.3% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 +0.9%.

2026. 3. 12.El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg-3.2%
2021. 12. 3.La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - AgriBusiness Global+1.6%
2023. 6. 29.US Midwest drought expands, but forecast rains offer relief to crops | Reuters+5.2%
2026. 2. 12.Drought Monitor shows conditions intensify across the lower 48 - Pro Farmer+1.5%
2026. 3. 26.Drought continues to expand in the Plains - Pro Farmer-0.3%

WHEAT▲상승현재까지1d -0.3%5d -1.6%20d -0.9%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 1,072건 이후, WHEAT은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 55%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.3%), 20거래일 동안 +0.3%.

2026. 3. 12.El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg-0.2%
2022. 3. 23.Canadian farmers face drought threat as global wheat, canola prices soar+1.3%
2021. 5. 4.Global Crop Areas Susceptible to Drought - Climate Impact Company+5.0%
2023. 6. 16.FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24+3.5%
2025. 1. 29.Drought, low prices to drop Mexico’s grain production | World Grain+0.6%

SBM▲상승현재까지1d -0.6%5d -0.6%20d -10.2%

과거 상승 날씨 이벤트 453건 이후, SBM은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.5% 변동(상승 55%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.6%~+2.7%), 20거래일 동안 +0.5%.

2021. 12. 3.La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - AgriBusiness Global+2.4%
2021. 11. 29.La Nina Is Set to Deliver Drought to Argentina’s Soybean Crop - Bloomberg+1.9%
2023. 2. 14.Brazil drought threatening national output potential, southern farmers say-2.3%
2023. 11. 30.El Niño ahead: Potential disruption to fishmeal supply in 2024-4.6%
2025. 4. 30.Officials raise alarm as country's key crop forecast drops by over 1 million tons — here's what it means for global food prices-1.5%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

CORN · GP ▸

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SOY · GP ▸

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