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ING analysts report that commodities rallied strongly in the first two months of 2021, led by oil, and that G10 commodity currencies have outperformed EM commodity currencies. They argue that long-term undervaluation could help the Russian rouble benefit from a second-half oil rally, while a decline in iron ore should weigh on the Australian dollar more than the Brazilian real.
A continued copper rally should support the Chilean peso.
Commodity currencies move with commodity export prices, so a second-half oil rally could strengthen petro-currencies and affect input costs for feed and biofuel supply chains. The analysis is an outlook rather than a new supply or demand event, so the direct effect on feed prices is limited.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Warren Patterson2021. 3. 3.과거 상승 거시 이벤트 487건 이후, 원유 (WTI)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +1.0% 변동(상승 60%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.0%~+4.0%), 20거래일 동안 +1.5%.
각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
