◂ 이벤트 타임라인

2026. 5. 12.보고서미국

Wheat Rallies the Limit on Tuesday as USDA Releases Production Updates

Wheat futures rallied to limit-up levels on Tuesday after USDA's Crop Production report showed winter wheat at 1.048 billion bushels and all wheat at 1.561 billion, below estimates. Ending stocks for 2026/27 were 762 million bushels versus 845 million expected.

Winter wheat ratings fell to 28% good to excellent.

중요한 이유

Production and stocks well below trade estimates push wheat prices sharply higher, increasing the cost of wheat in feed formulations. Expanded daily limits signal continued volatility ahead.

영향 대상밀 (SRW)▲옥수수◆밀 (HRW)▲

출처 3건
barchart.comDarin Newsom2026. 5. 12.
barchart.comAustin Schroeder2026. 5. 12.
dtnpf.comDana Mantini2026. 5. 12.

가격 반응 및 이력

밀 (SRW)▲상승현재까지1d +1.2%5d +2.0%20d -3.2%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 769건 이후, 밀 (SRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.4%~+2.0%), 20거래일 동안 +0.2%.

2021. 9. 30.Soybeans Plunge, Wheat Rallies on USDA Stocks and Production Changes+5.6%
2022. 10. 6.USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-14.4%
2020. 1. 15.Markets react as USDA reduces production estimates | The Rural | Wagga Wagga, NSW+0.0%
2026. 6. 30.Wheat Rallies on Bull Friendly USDA Report Data+0.2%
2021. 8. 17.USDA slashes global wheat production - Grain Central+0.1%

옥수수◆중립현재까지1d +0.8%5d +1.8%20d -7.2%

과거 중립 보고서 이벤트 770건 이후, 옥수수은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.2% 변동(상승 54%; 중간 50% 범위 -1.1%~+1.6%), 20거래일 동안 +0.7%.

2020. 6. 11.USDA Releases June Crop Production, WASDE Reports+1.0%
2024. 8. 13.Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell-1.2%
2017. 6. 12.USDA Releases Latest WASDE Report-0.6%
2019. 11. 22.Wheat production, trade rising: IGC - Grain Central+0.6%
2018. 2. 19.USDA releases 10-year forecasts for ethanol, biodiesel production - Governors' Biofuels Coalition-0.1%

밀 (HRW)▲상승현재까지1d +7.0%5d +4.5%20d -6.3%

과거 상승 보고서 이벤트 180건 이후, 밀 (HRW)은 5거래일 동안 중앙값 +0.4% 변동(상승 53%; 중간 50% 범위 -2.1%~+3.7%), 20거래일 동안 -0.6%.

2021. 9. 30.Soybeans Plunge, Wheat Rallies on USDA Stocks and Production Changes+4.7%
2022. 10. 6.USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-2.0%
2020. 1. 15.Markets react as USDA reduces production estimates | The Rural | Wagga Wagga, NSW-0.9%
2026. 6. 30.Wheat Rallies on Bull Friendly USDA Report Data+6.6%
2021. 8. 17.USDA slashes global wheat production - Grain Central-4.4%

각 품목 벤치마크의 이벤트 직전 종가 대비 변동. 과거 수치는 같은 유형의 과거 이벤트를 합산한 것으로, 일어난 일을 설명할 뿐 앞으로 일어날 일이 아닙니다. 투자 자문이 아닙니다.

연관 가격 변동

밀 (SRW)+3.2%1개 기간 · 2026. 5. 11.까지3.6σ
USDA Crop Production report on May 12 showed US wheat output and ending stocks well below expectations, sending futures limit-up; this is a direct supply shock.
밀 (HRW)+7.0%1개 기간 · 2026. 5. 11.까지3.5σ
The May 12 USDA Crop Production report came in far below expectations (all wheat 1.561 bn bu, ending stocks 762 mil vs 845 expected) and sent wheat futures limit-up, a direct supply shock.

밀 (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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옥수수 CORN · GP ▸

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