Global prices, bumper crop, monsoon bring relief: Farm clouds begin to clear

過去の中立なマクロイベント13件の後、小麦(SRW) は5営業日で中央値 -0.3% 動き（46% が上昇。中央50%は -2.0% から +0.2%）、20営業日では -2.0% 動きました。

• 2023/03/14Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility | IFPRI-2.1%
• 2019/06/27Markets analysis: cropping margins for 2020 - Farmers Weekly-8.5%
• 2018/06/04Market Outlook Considerations for Week Beginning June 4, 2018+0.2%
• 2018/05/14Inflation forces building+0.7%
• 2018/05/31Should U.S. Farmers Fret Over Falling Ag Currencies?+0.2%

過去のマクロイベント43件の後、籾米 は5営業日で中央値 +0.5% 動き（56% が上昇。中央50%は -2.0% から +2.3%）、20営業日では +1.6% 動きました。

• 2024/07/19Commodity prices falling for very different reasons - PricePedia+5.0%
• 2025/11/14Thai rice sector in crisis as yields fall, costs rise and export prices hit 15-year low-0.9%
• 2017/03/30Rise prices rise in India, Thailand on stronger currencies+3.1%
• 2025/08/21Japan core inflation dips to lowest since March as rice prices cool-4.4%

過去の中立なマクロイベント15件の後、牛乳(クラスIII) は5営業日で中央値 -0.2% 動き（27% が上昇。中央50%は -2.1% から +0.1%）、20営業日では -3.2% 動きました。

• 2026/04/09U.S. dairy market structure shifts to short on protein, long on butterfat, by: Corey Geiger - Dairy Producer-1.4%
• 2026/08/31Kiwi braces for RBNZ decision, Aussie tries to steady after setback - Markets - Business Recorder-2.9%
• 2022/02/15Inflation, interest rates, labor and logistics will marginalize higher milk prices+0.3%
• 2023/01/25Strong dairy product exports impact U.S. milk prices – AgriNews+0.3%
• 2022/04/18High costs expected to stress dairy margins | Capital Press-0.0%