El Nino may arrive this summer and fall

過去の中立な天候イベント445件の後、トウモロコシ は5営業日で中央値 +0.1% 動き（52% が上昇。中央50%は -1.4% から +1.6%）、20営業日では +0.7% 動きました。

• 2017/08/10How will summer drought and this fall’s corn crop affect feeder cattle-4.5%
• 2020/05/14U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer-0.0%
• 2026/02/17Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET-1.0%
• 2023/11/16Fall Rains Ease Midwest Drought and Replenish Mississippi River - Farmer Mac+0.0%
• 2025/06/06Texas Agriculture • June 6, 2025 • El Niño nor La Niña likely to impact Lone Star State this summer-2.1%

過去の中立な天候イベント324件の後、大豆 は5営業日で中央値 +0.0% 動き（52% が上昇。中央50%は -1.4% から +1.7%）、20営業日では +0.7% 動きました。

• 2023/05/05‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO - The HinduBusinessLine-0.4%
• 2020/05/14U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer+1.3%
• 2026/02/17Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET+0.1%
• 2025/02/14The Mississippi River levels are recharging but challenges may still arise for shippers and producers - RFD+0.9%
• 2025/04/21El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook+1.3%

過去の強気な天候イベント1,072件の後、小麦(SRW) は5営業日で中央値 +0.2% 動き（55% が上昇。中央50%は -1.4% から +2.3%）、20営業日では +0.3% 動きました。

• 2019/03/15El Nino Odds Favorable Through the Summer - ProAg+2.9%
• 2024/05/09El Nino and La Nina | Red River Farm Network+2.0%
• 2026/03/13El Niño Watch: 62% Chance of Arrival This Summer, But Drew Lerner Warns Extreme Forecasts May Be Overblown - AgWeb-0.2%
• 2018/10/24Hot, dry summer ahead as El Nino sets in - Grain Central-0.3%
• 2023/06/01El Nino may hammer Asian farms with dry weather, but shower American growers-3.6%