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Citigroup's head of commodities research attributed the collapse in crude since early October to the State Department's shifting stance on Iran sanctions, President Trump's tweets about OPEC supply, the trade war with China, and rapid growth in U.S. shale output. These factors are all cited as drivers of the price drop.
Policy signals and shale supply growth point to a longer period of ample crude, which tends to weigh on energy input costs and biofuel-linked demand for feedstocks.
bloomberg.comDan Murtaugh2018/11/15過去の弱気な地政学イベント255件の後、原油(WTI) は5営業日で中央値 -2.4% 動き（31% が上昇。中央50%は -7.0% から +1.7%）、20営業日では -5.0% 動きました。
過去の弱気な地政学イベント250件の後、原油(ブレント) は5営業日で中央値 -3.1% 動き（36% が上昇。中央50%は -7.9% から +1.6%）、20営業日では -5.5% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
Citi attributes the crude collapse to Iran sanctions waivers, Trump's OPEC tweets, trade war and shale growth, which together weighed on supply/demand sentiment, though it describes the earlier slide rather than the final week.
Identifies drivers of the multi-week slump (softer Iran sanctions stance, shale growth, trade war, Trump tweets on OPEC) that sustained bearish positioning, though dated a week before the move.
Cites shifted Iran sanctions stance, Trump's OPEC tweets, trade war and US shale growth as causes, which broadly explain the decline but it is dated after the window and is retrospective.
