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ABN AMRO says Brazil faces external and domestic headwinds but is less vulnerable than Turkey because it has a smaller current account deficit and stronger foreign direct investment inflows. The bank flags the fiscal deficit, which has run above 5% of GDP since 2015, as the weakest point.
It expects the central bank to hold rates for the rest of 2018 and resume tightening in 2019.
Brazil's fiscal weakness and election uncertainty keep the real exposed to risk-off episodes, which can swing the cost of dollar-priced Brazilian grain and meal. Expected stable Selic rates through 2018 limit near-term currency support from monetary policy.
forexcrunch.comFX Street2018/08/29過去の中立なマクロイベント92件の後、ブラジルレアル(1 USDあたりBRL) は5営業日で中央値 +0.4% 動き（58% が上昇。中央50%は -0.7% から +1.4%）、20営業日では +0.4% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
