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ABN AMRO expects USD/BRL to trade near 3.7 by year-end after Brazil's presidential election, and says the real may gain further near term. The bank notes the real lost over 25% from January to August 2018 before recovering about 13% on hopes for Jair Bolsonaro's reforms.
It remains sceptical and expects the real to give back some gains once optimism fades, with 3.2 forecast for end-2019.
A stronger real makes Brazilian soybean, corn and meal exports more expensive in dollar terms for importers, which can modestly weigh on South American export competitiveness and support global feed prices if sustained; a reversal would do the opposite.
octaafrica.net2018/10/29過去の弱気なマクロイベント213件の後、ブラジルレアル(1 USDあたりBRL) は5営業日で中央値 -0.2% 動き（46% が上昇。中央50%は -1.5% から +0.9%）、20営業日では +0.2% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
