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Feeder cattle futures spreads across all months have recovered to near pre-COVID levels as quarantine restrictions and packing plant capacity issues have largely been resolved. Pasture conditions have deteriorated, with the share rated poor or very poor rising since late May and running well worse than the five-year average, driven by drought spreading from the Southwest into the Great Plains.
The author notes producers may need to market weaned calves earlier or winter them.
Deteriorating pasture forces earlier calf sales and adds supply to feeder markets, which could pressure prices, while cheaper corn would support feedlot margins. Producers can use futures spreads to lock in margins.
u.osu.eduSmith at2020/07/29過去の中立な天候イベント21件の後、フィーダー牛 は5営業日で中央値 +1.7% 動き（67% が上昇。中央50%は -0.1% から +2.3%）、20営業日では -0.2% 動きました。
過去の中立な天候イベント20件の後、生牛 は5営業日で中央値 +0.4% 動き（60% が上昇。中央50%は -0.3% から +1.2%）、20営業日では +3.0% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
