OPEC data indicate close oil supply-demand balance in 2026, no glut

過去の中立なレポートイベント41件の後、原油(ブレント) は5営業日で中央値 -1.4% 動き（41% が上昇。中央50%は -4.0% から +1.9%）、20営業日では +1.8% 動きました。

• 2024/02/15Oil demand growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA | Reuters+1.1%
• 2025/12/11OPEC Keeps 2026 Oil Supply, Demand Outlook Steady in Latest Report - Bloomberg-4.0%
• 2018/01/31Oil rebounds, ends up on gasoline demand, OPEC compliance-2.3%
• 2024/01/03OPEC’s Crude Oil Output Steady in December Before New Supply Cuts - Bloomberg+2.3%
• 2018/02/21IEA, EIA, OPEC differ on 2018 supply, demand growth - BusinessDay NG, TV, and Podcast+3.3%

過去の中立なレポートイベント56件の後、原油(WTI) は5営業日で中央値 +0.0% 動き（50% が上昇。中央50%は -2.7% から +2.5%）、20営業日では +0.8% 動きました。

• 2024/02/15Oil demand growth slowing as non-OPEC supply expands, says IEA | Reuters+3.1%
• 2025/07/01OPEC trims 2025 oil demand growth estimate but hikes ‘call’ on its crude+4.3%
• 2018/01/31Oil rebounds, ends up on gasoline demand, OPEC compliance-1.8%
• 2021/08/31OPEC+ Sees 2021 Oil Deficit, 2022 Surplus as Supply Revived - Bloomberg-1.2%
• 2024/01/03OPEC’s Crude Oil Output Steady in December Before New Supply Cuts - Bloomberg+2.6%