Oil settles up on US-Iran strikes; cautious hopes for shipping cap gains

過去の中立な地政学イベント60件の後、原油(WTI) は5営業日で中央値 -0.9% 動き（43% が上昇。中央50%は -4.7% から +2.3%）、20営業日では -1.9% 動きました。

• 2025/11/01Oil Rises on Reports US Plans to Strike OPEC Producer Venezuela-2.0%
• 2022/08/24Oil ends higher on U.S. response to Iran nuclear deal comments-3.8%
• 2026/04/01Gold set for worst month in more than 17 years as U.S. rate-cut hopes fade-6.6%
• 2020/11/30Opec set for annual meeting to discuss next phase of oil production policy | The National+1.5%
• 2026/03/09European nitrogen market rallies on gas price hike, Iran conflicts | S&P Global+8.5%

過去の中立な地政学イベント63件の後、原油(ブレント) は5営業日で中央値 -0.5% 動き（44% が上昇。中央50%は -4.4% から +2.6%）、20営業日では -2.7% 動きました。

• 2025/11/01Oil Rises on Reports US Plans to Strike OPEC Producer Venezuela-2.4%
• 2022/08/24Oil ends higher on U.S. response to Iran nuclear deal comments-0.5%
• 2020/11/30Opec set for annual meeting to discuss next phase of oil production policy | The National+3.5%
• 2025/06/24What influences crude oil more? US bombs or Iran's silent allies-6.9%
• 2025/08/06Key Factors Shaping OPEC+ Decisions - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies-2.8%

過去の地政学イベント327件の後、ULSD / ディーゼル は5営業日で中央値 +1.0% 動き（54% が上昇。中央50%は -3.9% から +7.5%）、20営業日では +0.4% 動きました。

• 2026/06/01EXCLUSIVE: OPEC+ set for another oil output quota hike despite Hormuz closure, sources say+1.7%
• 2026/07/22U.S. refiners are ramping up diesel production - TT+0.6%
• 2022/03/16Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data+28.4%
• 2017/05/26OPEC cut unlikely to move U.S. diesel prices - FreightWaves-4.4%
• 2025/06/25Market Talk | Energy Markets Stabilize as Ceasefire Holds and Risk Premiums Fade+1.5%