Have Brazilian soybean estimates slipped too far from reality?

過去の中立な天候イベント324件の後、大豆 は5営業日で中央値 +0.0% 動き（52% が上昇。中央50%は -1.4% から +1.7%）、20営業日では +0.7% 動きました。

• 2026/04/12Brazil Soybean Harvest Nears Completion | Red River Farm Network-0.7%
• 2022/12/26Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+0.6%
• 2023/01/19Brazil Soybeans 0.6% Harvested, Wet Weather Slows Early Harvest-1.4%
• 2018/01/26Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-0.7%
• 2019/12/26Brazil Corn and Soybeans Developing Nicely | Red River Farm Network+0.8%

過去の中立な天候イベント55件の後、大豆粕 は5営業日で中央値 -0.1% 動き（47% が上昇。中央50%は -1.7% から +1.5%）、20営業日では +0.1% 動きました。

• 2022/12/26Brazil Soybeans Benefit from Rain North, Hurt by Dryness Far South+5.7%
• 2026/04/06Climate concerns second corn crop and soybean harvest advances to 82% in Brazil+4.0%
• 2018/01/26Daily rains slow Brazil’s early bean harvest-1.9%
• 2018/09/28Damaged soy crop hits farmers reeling from U.S.-China trade war+0.1%
• 2022/12/26Dry Conditions Slow Soybean Planting in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil+5.7%