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Front-month ICE Brent futures rose 8.97% on June 13, their largest one-day jump in as many as five years, after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites and killed a top commander. No damage to energy infrastructure had been reported.
Analysts said the outcome depends on whether Iranian oil exports are affected.
JP Morgan's worst-case scenario puts a loss of over 2.1 million b/d of Iranian exports, which could push Dated Brent to $120-$130 a barrel. That would raise energy costs across feed production and freight.
spglobal.com2025/06/13過去の強気な地政学イベント656件の後、原油(ブレント) は5営業日で中央値 +1.9% 動き（63% が上昇。中央50%は -2.7% から +6.6%）、20営業日では +0.7% 動きました。
過去の強気な地政学イベント626件の後、原油(WTI) は5営業日で中央値 +2.1% 動き（62% が上昇。中央50%は -2.3% から +8.5%）、20営業日では +1.6% 動きました。
イベント直前の終値からの各商品ベンチマークの動き。過去の傾向は同種の過去イベントをまとめたものであり、起きたことを示すもので、今後を示すものではありません。投資助言ではありません。
Brent's 8.97% one-day jump on June 13 after Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites was the main driver of the 5-day move, via a geopolitical supply-risk premium.
Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, and ICE Brent had its largest one-day jump in years as traders priced in risks to Iranian exports.
Front-month Brent had its largest one-day jump in years on June 13 as Israel struck Iranian nuclear sites, which added a geopolitical supply-risk premium.
Brent had its largest one-day jump in years after strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price outcome dependent on Iranian export risk.
