◂ Cronologia eventi

10 lug 2026GEOPOLITICAMar Nero

Evening Report | Wheat's war premium - Pro Farmer

Wheat futures rallied sharply on July 10 after Russia reportedly halted shipping through the Don-Azov Channel following a Ukrainian attack on the Sea of Azov. Russia also banned diesel exports after refinery damage, lifting heating oil futures more than 11% during the week and supporting soybean oil.

September SRW wheat hit a six-week high of $6.40 1/4 and HRW reached $6.76 1/4.

PERCHÉ CONTA

Threats to Russian wheat export flows and a diesel export ban tighten supply and lift energy costs, supporting grain and soybean oil prices. Feed buyers face higher wheat and fuel-linked costs while the conflict persists.

INTERESSAFrumento (SRW)▲Frumento (HRW)▲Olio di soia▲ULSD / Gasolio▲Petrolio greggio (WTI)▲

FONTE
profarmer.comBill Watts10 lug 2026

Reazione dei prezzi e storico

Frumento (SRW)▲rialzistaFINORA1d +0,6%5d +0,9%20d +0,6%

Dopo 361 eventi geopolitica rialzista passati, Frumento (SRW) si è mosso in mediana di +0,7% in 5 sedute (58% in rialzo; metà centrale da -1,4% a +3,7%), e di +1,3% in 20.

27 ago 2026Wheat rallies as Black Sea exports stall - Farmers Weekly+4,0%
30 lug 2026First Thing Today | Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer-1,3%
26 mar 2020Win for farmers as 'toilet roll effect' hits wheat prices+1,9%
1 set 2026Wheat at war | The Star+1,0%
14 lug 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+4,5%

Frumento (HRW)▲rialzistaFINORA1d +3,2%5d +11,6%20d +9,0%

Dopo 94 eventi geopolitica rialzista passati, Frumento (HRW) si è mosso in mediana di +0,1% in 5 sedute (50% in rialzo; metà centrale da -2,7% a +5,8%), e di +0,1% in 20.

30 lug 2026First Thing Today | Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer-1,7%
26 mar 2020Win for farmers as 'toilet roll effect' hits wheat prices-5,2%
1 set 2026Wheat at war | The Star-2,5%
2 set 2026Australian farmers: Black Sea war offers wheat market opportunity | Farm Online | ACT-4,1%
14 lug 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+10,5%

Olio di soia▲rialzistaFINORA1d +0,2%5d +5,9%20d +0,4%

Dopo 110 eventi geopolitica rialzista passati, Olio di soia si è mosso in mediana di +1,8% in 5 sedute (65% in rialzo; metà centrale da -0,7% a +3,6%), e di -0,4% in 20.

9 mar 2026Grains Retreat Following Energies, See Farmer Selling: Cattle Plunge - AgWeb-0,7%
24 lug 2023After the Bell | July 24, 2023 - Pro Farmer+3,6%
2 nov 2022After the Bell | November 2, 2022 - Pro Farmer+3,2%
8 nov 2017Rising oil markets should boost dairy prices - Premium-2,9%
28 feb 2026What the Iran attack means for oil, fertilizer and ag commodities - Pro Farmer+4,6%

ULSD / Gasolio▲rialzistaFINORA1d -0,4%5d +13,2%20d +9,7%

Dopo 250 eventi geopolitica rialzista passati, ULSD / Gasolio si è mosso in mediana di +1,7% in 5 sedute (58% in rialzo; metà centrale da -3,6% a +8,7%), e di +0,9% in 20.

27 nov 2024War Risk Premium Drives Diesel Gains | Energy Intelligence-3,1%
1 mag 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why-7,3%
18 set 2026From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world-6,6%
1 mag 2026U.S. oil hovers near $100 on report Trump dissatisfied with Iran's proposal to open Hormuz-7,3%
1 ott 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast-3,7%

Variazioni del benchmark di ciascuna materia prima rispetto all'ultima chiusura prima dell'evento. Le letture storiche raggruppano eventi passati dello stesso tipo; descrivono ciò che è accaduto, non ciò che accadrà. Non è consulenza di investimento.

Movimenti di prezzo collegati

Frumento (HRW)+12,1%5 periodi fino al 14 lug 20263,8σ
Russia reportedly halted Don-Azov shipping on July 10 and September HRW reached $6.76, which started the rally through a trade-flow and war-premium mechanism.
Olio di soia+7,7%5 periodi fino al 13 lug 20262,9σ
Russia's diesel export ban and refinery damage lifted heating oil more than 11% during the week, which raises biofuel feedstock demand and input-cost parity and directly supported soybean oil in the 5-day window.
Olio di soia+7,1%5 periodi fino al 16 lug 20262,9σ
Russian diesel export ban and an 11% weekly jump in heating oil supported soybean oil through energy and biofuel-linked input cost channels, alongside a wheat rally that lifted the grains complex.

Frumento (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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Frumento (HRW) KWHEAT · GP ▸

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