◂ Cronologia eventi

2 mar 2020MACROUSA

US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar

ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15.

They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.

PERCHÉ CONTA

Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.

INTERESSADollaro USA (ampio)▼Euro (USD per EUR)▲Petrolio greggio (WTI)▼

FONTE
think.ing.comJames Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Chris Turner2 mar 2020

Reazione dei prezzi e storico

Dollaro USA (ampio)▼ribassistaFINORA1d -0,7%5d -0,8%20d +4,0%

Dopo 1637 eventi macro ribassista passati, Dollaro USA (ampio) si è mosso in mediana di -0,2% in 5 sedute (39% in rialzo; metà centrale da -0,6% a +0,3%), e di -0,2% in 20.

3 mar 2020Fed and the FX markets: Tainted carry | articles | ING THINK+0,3%
26 giu 2018For the US dollar, the only way is not up | articles | ING THINK+0,8%
20 set 2024US Fed rate cuts: What does this mean for gold, equities, and emerging markets? | Julius Baer-0,2%
28 apr 2021FX Daily: The patient Fed and the “nervous” dollar | articles | ING THINK+0,3%
29 lug 2020US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors? - Invest Blue+0,4%

Euro (USD per EUR)▲rialzistaFINORA1d +1,5%5d +2,9%20d +0,5%

Dopo 388 eventi macro rialzista passati, Euro (USD per EUR) si è mosso in mediana di +0,3% in 5 sedute (62% in rialzo; metà centrale da -0,4% a +1,1%), e di +0,1% in 20.

28 lug 2020Rates Spark: The weaker USD, the Fed and cross currency | articles | ING THINK0,0%
16 apr 2025G10 FX Talking: The medium-term dollar bear trend develops | articles | ING THINK+1,6%
29 mag 2026Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed-0,2%
4 mar 2021FX: Dollar bounce underwhelms | articles | ING THINK-1,4%
11 mar 2021EUR and ECB: Dovish for bonds, but not for EUR | articles | ING THINK+0,0%

Petrolio greggio (WTI)▼ribassistaFINORA1d +4,4%5d -8,1%20d -61,4%

Dopo 565 eventi macro ribassista passati, Petrolio greggio (WTI) si è mosso in mediana di -1,4% in 5 sedute (41% in rialzo; metà centrale da -5,9% a +3,0%), e di -0,5% in 20.

8 set 2022The Commodities Feed: USD strength and demand worries | articles | ING THINK+7,8%
1 feb 2024The Commodities Feed: Fed comments weigh on the complex | articles | ING THINK-2,6%
15 lug 2022What the dollar's surge means for the economy+0,6%
27 ago 2021The Commodities Feed: USD holds the market back | snaps | ING THINK+3,9%
19 lug 2018Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM+2,5%

Variazioni del benchmark di ciascuna materia prima rispetto all'ultima chiusura prima dell'evento. Le letture storiche raggruppano eventi passati dello stesso tipo; descrivono ciò che è accaduto, non ciò che accadrà. Non è consulenza di investimento.

Movimenti di prezzo collegati

Euro (USD per EUR)+1,5%1 periodo fino al 2 mar 20205,4σ
On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD.
Euro (USD per EUR)+2,9%5 periodi fino al 6 mar 20204,4σ
Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver.
Dollaro USA (ampio)-0,7%1 periodo fino al 2 mar 2020-4,4σ
Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move.

Dollaro USA (ampio) DXY · GP ▸

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Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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