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Rabobank says global fertiliser stocks are rebuilding and urea and phosphate prices, now about half their two-year peaks, could fall as much as 15% over the next five months. About 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate are likely to reach the market after Beijing suspended exports.
Rising farm fuel prices and a lack of official guidance on Chinese export quotas add uncertainty.
Expected release of Chinese phosphate supply and rebuilding stocks should push DAP and urea prices lower, easing input costs for feed grain producers. Gas-linked risks could limit the decline, and China's export quota decisions remain a key swing factor.
farmonline.com.auAndrew Marshall24 apr 2024Dopo 34 eventi politica ribassista passati, Urea si è mosso in mediana di -0,8% in 5 sedute (38% in rialzo; metà centrale da -3,3% a +1,8%), e di -4,5% in 20.
Dopo 50 eventi politica ribassista passati, DAP si è mosso in mediana di +0,9% in 5 sedute (62% in rialzo; metà centrale da -0,1% a +1,6%), e di +0,9% in 20.
Dopo 13 eventi politica rialzista passati, Gas naturale si è mosso in mediana di -1,7% in 5 sedute (46% in rialzo; metà centrale da -2,4% a +4,5%), e di +5,3% in 20.
Variazioni del benchmark di ciascuna materia prima rispetto all'ultima chiusura prima dell'evento. Le letture storiche raggruppano eventi passati dello stesso tipo; descrivono ciò che è accaduto, non ciò che accadrà. Non è consulenza di investimento.
Rabobank's outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as roughly 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reach the market and stocks rebuild is a bearish supply and sentiment signal dated the day before the drop.
Rabobank's April 24 outlook for phosphate prices to fall up to 15% as stocks rebuild and about 7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate may reach the market is a bearish supply and sentiment signal that fits the DAP drop.
Rabobank's forecast of rebuilding stocks, up to 15% further phosphate price declines and a potential ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market shifted supply expectations and sentiment bearishly.
Rabobank's forecast of further phosphate price declines and an expected ~7 million tonnes of Chinese phosphate reaching the market suggest supply-driven bearish sentiment, though the timing precedes the move by two days and the size of the drop is far greater than a gradual forecast implies.
