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The real accelerated its depreciation in early March 2020, with the dollar closing at $4.58 on Wednesday and the real down 13.9% year to date by Thursday. The central bank's $1 billion FX swap intervention failed to halt the decline.
Markets priced in further Selic rate cuts after the US Fed's 50 basis point cut, and Brazil's 2019 growth was confirmed at 1.1%.
Currency weakness and expected rate cuts raise the risk of a slowdown in Brazilian demand and make Brazilian export supply cheaper in dollars. Brazil's heavy reliance on China, which takes 27.6% of its exports, adds to the downside risk for agricultural prices.
euromoney.comRob Dwyer6 Mar 2020Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +1,7%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Dated a day after the move, but describes the accelerating early-March real depreciation, failed central bank swap intervention and Selic cut pricing that contributed to the same slide, though it is partly confirmatory rather than a distinct driver.
