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Saxo's weekly commodity review says Covid-19 lockdowns have cut oil demand by an estimated 25 million barrels per day. Storage concerns pushed a late-week rally on hopes of an emergency production cut among OPEC and non-OPEC producers.
Sugar and corn fell with oil through the biofuel link, while wheat gained on hoarding of staples.
Crude's slump weakens the ethanol and biofuel link that supports corn and sugar, while a possible production cut would be the main upside risk to energy and oil-linked feed-cost sentiment.
home.saxoOle Hansen20 Mar 2020Setelah 565 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (WTI) bergerak median -1,4% selama 5 sesi (41% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -5,9% sampai +3,0%), dan -0,5% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 312 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Minyak Mentah (Brent) bergerak median -1,7% selama 5 sesi (38% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -5,4% sampai +2,3%), dan -1,7% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Jagung bergerak median -0,1% selama 5 sesi (47% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -2,2% sampai +1,3%), dan +0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 57 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Gandum (SRW) bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (65% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,5% sampai +1,7%), dan -0,7% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
Lockdowns cut oil demand by an estimated 25 million barrels per day, and storage concerns weighed on prices despite hopes of an emergency production cut.
Collapsing oil demand and falling crude dragged corn lower through the biofuel link, adding to selling pressure.
Weekly review quantifies a lockdown-driven 25 mb/d demand loss and storage concerns, explaining the week's slide, though it also notes a late rally.
Estimates lockdowns cut oil demand by about 25 million bpd, a demand-side driver of the price collapse.
