
Brown Brothers Harriman analysts noted that central bank governor Goldfajn signaled discomfort with the strong real, suggesting the bank may not fully roll over around $7 billion of FX swaps expiring March 1. Analysts flagged 3.10 per dollar as a key level and expect another 75 bp rate cut at the February 22 meeting.
Possible non-renewal of FX swaps would reduce dollar supply and push USD/BRL higher, making Brazilian exports cheaper and more competitive, which is bearish for global soy and corn prices.
Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +1,7%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.