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David Roche argues that the dollar's multi-year rally is losing fundamental support. He says U.S. protectionist measures such as tariffs or a border tax could hurt the dollar via capital-account effects, including possible Chinese retaliation.
He also expects the ECB to be done easing and German inflation to be rising.
A weaker dollar would lift dollar-priced commodities such as soybeans, corn and meal for non-U.S. buyers, while a stronger euro would raise the cost of those imports for euro-zone feed users. The view is an opinion piece and does not itself change current supply or demand.
euromoney.comDavid Roche23 Feb 2017Setelah 388 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Euro (USD per EUR) bergerak median +0,3% selama 5 sesi (62% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,4% sampai +1,1%), dan +0,1% selama 20 sesi.
Setelah 1.637 peristiwa makro bearish sebelumnya, Dolar AS (Luas) bergerak median -0,2% selama 5 sesi (39% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -0,6% sampai +0,3%), dan -0,2% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.
