
Lloyds Bank analysts say the Brazilian real is overvalued by about 13% against the US dollar. They expect the real to weaken modestly as pension reform meets resistance in Congress and the central bank cuts rates.
The bank frames a weaker real as only a partial retracement of last year's gains.
A weaker real would make Brazilian agricultural exports cheaper in dollar terms, supporting Brazilian competitiveness in soy, meal and corn and potentially pressuring global prices.
Setelah 301 peristiwa makro bullish sebelumnya, Real Brasil (BRL per USD) bergerak median +0,4% selama 5 sesi (57% lebih tinggi; separuh tengah -1,2% sampai +1,7%), dan +1,0% selama 20 sesi.
Pergerakan benchmark setiap komoditas dari penutupan terakhir sebelum peristiwa. Pembacaan historis menggabungkan peristiwa serupa di masa lalu; itu menggambarkan apa yang terjadi, bukan apa yang akan terjadi. Bukan nasihat investasi.